Nonetheless, the ultimate test is not theoretical conjecture, but evidence. And while the minimum wage is supported with much more pleasant rhetoric these days, the effects on black employment, particularly black teenage employment, have been devastating.
Thus, allowing for the possibility of larger job loss effects, based on other studies, and possible job losses among older low-skilled adults, a reasonable estimate based on the evidence is that current minimum wages have directly reduced the number of jobs nationally by abouttorelative to the period just before the Great Recession.
This Letter sheds light on the range of estimates and the different approaches in the research that might explain some of the conflicting results.
The studies argue that their results differ because comparisons between distant states confound actual minimum wage effects with other associated negative shocks to low-skill labor markets. The across-state variation allowed comparisons of changes in youth employment between states that did and did not raise their minimum wage.
A number of studies using narrow geographic comparisons find employment effects that are closer to zero and not statistically significant for both teenagers and restaurant workers. However, without strong assumptions it is impossible to rule out an alternative interpretation—that peer review and publication lead to more evidence of negative estimates because the true effect is negative.
Recent minimum wage increases and implications Despite the evidence of job loss, policymakers and the voting public have raised minimum wages frequently and sometimes substantially in recent years. A Factor Model Approach. Neumark, David, and William Wascher.
Many studies over the years find that higher minimum wages reduce employment of teens and low-skilled workers more generally. Research sincehowever, has reported conflicting findings.
Baskaya, Yusuf Soner, and Yona Rubinstein. It is easy to be confused about what effects minimum wages have on jobs for low-skilled workers.
In these states, minimum wages in averaged It also presents some midrange estimates of the aggregate employment effects from recent minimum wage increases based on the research literature. If we instead use the larger 16—24 age group and apply the smaller elasticity to reflect that a smaller share of this group is affected, the crude estimate of missing jobs rises to about 75, Seventy-five notable economists even signed a petition to President Obama to raise the minimum wage.
This made it easier to distinguish the effects of minimum wages from those of business cycle and other influences on aggregate low-skill employment.
Some of the larger estimates are from studies that are likely to receive more scrutiny in the future. Meer, Jonathan, and Jeremy West. Researchers offer conflicting evidence on whether or not raising the minimum wage means fewer jobs for these workers. To compare the average change across states between andI account for the smaller number of states with higher minimums in and their lower levels, and weight the states by their working-age population.
Of course, the labor market is more complicated. First, employers will substitute away from the low-skilled labor that is now more expensive towards other inputs, such as equipment or other capital.The earliest studies of the employment effects of minimum wages used only national variation in the U.S.
minimum wage. They found elasticities between − and − for teens ages 16–19, and between − and − for young adults ages 16– The effects of the minimum wage on employment and hours in state-level data are estimated in Section 4, and Section 5 contains the individual-level results.
Section 6 concludes. 2.
Employment and Business Effects of Minimum Wage Increases NELP’s Minimum Wage Basics series sheds light on key issues related to the minimum wage, drawing on the latest research and campaign developments. Introduction W hile the U.S. economy continues to see steady growth, wages have been flat or falling for much of the labor force.
Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, has introduced legislation that would raise the federal minimum wage to $ -- about $20, for a year of full-time work -- within two years.
In subsequent years, the required pay rate would be increased each year by the same percentage that the federal Consumer Price Index rises. Jun 26, · The $an-hour minimum wage went into effect for large businesses that do not provide health insurance on Jan. 1 of this year, and it will gradually go into effect for other businesses in future years.
Others in the business community believe the minimum wage increases may be having a negative effect on employment. For this report, CBO examined the effects on employment and family income of two options for increasing the federal minimum wage (see the figure below): A “$ option” would increase the federal minimum wage from its current rate of $ per hour to $ per hour in three steps—in, andDownload